Analysis: Warlock - Refresher or Aghanim first?





Which is more crucial to get first? Refresher ORB or a Scepter?

Refresher Orbs adds an extra ultimate while Scepter does the same except with 2 weaker Golems.
Lets break down both of the items and see which items will provide better bonuses for our favorite Golem Summoner.

Why is it important to decide which item to go first is that many people currently are picking the Scepter build. However I read a post somewhere debating that Refresher Orb rush is actually much better. Lets look into both items and see which will provide the most benefits for Warlock.


1) Refresher Orb icon.png Refresher Orb

Cost: Oblivion Staff (1675 [325+450+900])  +  Perserverance (1750[875+875]) + Recipe (1875)
Active: Reset Cooldowns
Bonus+6 Intelligence
+5 HP regeneration
+200% Mana regeneration
+40 Damage
Pros:

a) Able to Cast all spells twice including items (Double Fatal Bonds[its stacks], Heal and Upheaval along with his Ultimate)
b)  Provides Mana Regeneration which Warlock will benefit as Void Stone and Sage's Mask is one of the Components.
c) Does not Weaken Golems summoned from his Ultimate whereas Aghanim Scepter weakens them.
d) You can decide the timing for his Ultimate, this is crucial as the Interval for the Second Golem from Scepter is 0.3 seconds whereas with Refresher Orb you can cast them with an interval of 1 second thus doubling the base stun duration.

Cons:

a) Difficult build up due to the fact that he needs to accumulate 1875 gold which could be difficult for support Warlock.
b) DOES NOT PROVIDE HP / SURVIVALBILITY
c) Requires a huge Mana Pool to cast everything twice. ([120+150+150+300]*2+375) a WHOOPING 1815 mana to cast everything twice.

2) Aghanim's Scepter icon.png
Ultimate is improved : Impact delay 0.3 seconds, summons 2 Golems with 75% hp and damage, and 50% bounty each
PassiveUltimate Upgrade
Bonus+10 Strength (+190 HP)
+10 Agility
+10 Intelligence
+200 HP
+150 Mana
Pros:
1) HP Bonus. With an additional 390 Hp along with 1.x additional armor ! This will increase Warlocks EHP which is already relatively high compared to other supports. A big deciding factor as of why Sceptor is preferred as a first item compared to Refresher Orb.
2) Cheaper and easier Build up. You can purchase Orge club and Point booster first for the addition HP before getting the rest of the parts to be super tanky in the Early-Mid Game. 
3) Damage from Immolation and Flaming Fists are not reduced.

Cons:

1) Reduced Damage and HP means it will be easier for your opponents to kill them and its not as powerful as a Refresher Orb.
2) Only provides 1.3 second stun due to its short interval.
3) Only able to stun 1 area as compared to RO'which provides more flexibility.




Looking at all these points, many players still decide to go for Scepter first. Reason being the additional HP really helps a lot and still managed to keep his DPS on.

But looking at the other side of the Spectrum, Refresher Orb provides one niche above ASU (Aghanim Scepter Upgrade) which is Fatal Bonds.

Fatal Bonds can be stacked or linked with more units. If a whole team is debuffed, it could result in a huge increase in dps for your team. This could be an important factor when deciding which item to get but remember to farm your Arcane Boots first as you will definitely need it for the doubled Mana cost for all your spells.

It could also be argued that the Mana Cost issue with Refresher Orb could be nullified by getting the most common item on Warlock, Arcane Boots. 
Arcane Boots
Arcane Boots860,559
543,580
63.17%
Lets take a look at lvl 11 where Warlock is most likely to have gotten his Aghanim Scepter Upgrade or Refresher Orb.

Base Mana (Including Base Intelligence/ At Level 1): 312
Intelligence per Level : 2.7
Mana per Level : 2.7*13 = 35.1
At Level 11 : 35.1*10+312 =663
With Arcane Boots = +250 = 913
With Intelligence Gain from Refresher Orb = 6*13 = 78 So Total 991 Current Mana
Arcane Boots Twice = (135-25) x 2 = 220

Total Mana : 1211

Total Mana Cost at Level 11 with Double Fatal Bonds and Chaotic Offering is 120*2+250*2+375=1115

Its just about enough but you wont be possible to cast anymore spells after that.

Frankly speaking this won't be a very good build since you will be casting spells before the fight and may not be at full mana at the time of the fight.




Another point we can take a look at Dotabuff's records for Warlock

Refresher Orb300,527
244,131
81.23%
Refresher Orb : 300,527 games - 244,131 wins - 81.23% Win Rate
Aghanim's Scepter
Aghanim's Scepter704,463
522,921
74.23%
Aghanim's Scepter : 704,463 Games played, 522,921 wins , 74.23% Win Rate

Seems like Refresher Orb has a higher Win rate than ASU. Meaning that Refrehser Orb is more likely to have a greater impact in the game. However this could be that most games would have been ended by the time both ASU and Refresher Orb have been taken. 



Lets now compare the DPS from the Weakened and the Normal Golems

Damage: 75/ 100 / 125 (Normal)
Damage: 56/75/94 (Aghanim)
Flaming Fists: 100/150/200
Immolation : 30/40/50

As you can see that bulk of his damage comes from his passives. Thus the damage reduction from ASU will not reduce his DPS that much.

Out of all that, so what are your own views. Comment or Post below !





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